On demand, I decided to throw a look at just what voters political projection of voters vote seems likely be predicting. To do this, I'll use recent polls PPP of two States: California, going to Barack Obama strongly and West Virginia, where Obama popularity has never been hot only.
First of all, we look at Virginia - Western I see two key stats: PPP, probably explains the State voters went to McCain 54-38 (Ministry of education 2.8) and present an advantage for Democrats registration 55-35.
Was natural to find a basis of reference for these figures place the wave for Democrats in 2008 exit poll this year. If PPP numbers like those, or better then PPP is projecting a wave for the Democrats this year, the most probable.
And the West Virginia Senate race in 2008, we consider that the partisan breakdown by CNN has 49 R D-33 (Ministry of education 3, if you think that the exit polls are also random that we need to be). Therefore the poll out last time showed an advantage of 16 record D + PPP again shows a benefit D + 20 record appearing in the project and even greater wave for Democrats.
In addition if we check the presidential statements of West Virginia, we see that the State is made for McCain 56-43 (no Department of education, as this is the actual result), or R + 13. PPP shows State goes for McCain 54 - 38, R + 16. Therefore even more strangely, PPP seems to be suggesting a wave of Democrats who dislike Barack Obama. SCHWA?
Moving to California, PPP shows Barack Obama Democrats to win 57-37, D - 34 R - 19 other 47 registration advantage.The CA result has 61-37 Obama and CA survey showed a 42-30-28 registration advantage.It appears therefore that PPPs to be showing less independent, democratic and Republican California 2008 less.And unlike WV, CA appears even not one any additional support to John McCain 2008 réel.Aucun Obama anti, anti Democrat, or even anti-incumbent election waves, really.
If you think it is probably likely voter screen of the PPP should be exacte.Si you don't, the PPP results should be adjusted mentally to be digéré.Et is not fraud, by the way, as some would say .c ' is just a failure of the PPP model to manage the wave of back to back years in opposite directions, which is a fairly minor failure a model, I think.
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